🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."