🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.